To convene coastal stakeholders across all sectors - academics, government, industry, NGOs - to synthesize our present capabilities for modeling storm processes, forecasting impacts, and to determine/prioritize needed advancements. There will be a subsequent call for academic research proposals, funded by the participating federal agencies, for research projects that focus on addressing pertinent questions identified in the meeting.
April 16: Afternoon Marine Science Open House (Optional) 1 - 5 pm
A great opportunity to tour St. Pete Marine Science capabilities at the USGS Coastal Marine Science Center, the FWC Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, the University of South Florida College of Marine Science, and aboard the Florida Institute of Oceanography (FIT) R/V WBII research vessel! Space is limited and separate registration is required.
Welcome Reception: Marine Exploration Center
April 17: Defining the Challenges of Predicting Storm Impacts 8 am - 5 pm
Short presentations on the challenges of predicting storm impacts from coastal managers, government agencies, and emergency managers. The afternoon will focus on discussions to prioritize challenges.
April 18: Science toward understanding storm processes and impacts: 8 am - 4.30 pm
Presentations by storm impacts and processes researchers and modelers, breakout sessions, and a large group discussion to prioritize research needs.
April 18: Technology Challenge Information Session (Optional to learn about academic funding opportunity) 4.30 pm
Leighann Brandt (BOEM), Tiffany Briggs (FAU), Mary Cialone (USACE), Donald Cresitello (USACE), Casey Dietrich (NC State Univ), Nicole Elko (ASBPA), Joe Long (USGS), Brett Webb (Univ S Alabama).
The purpose of this workshop is to convene coastal stakeholders across all sectors - academics, government, industry, NGOs - to synthesize our present capabilities for understanding, representing, and simulating storm processes and storm response and to determine/prioritize needed advancements. More research and improved communication between the research community, government agencies, local emergency managers, and private industry may be needed to obtain a better understanding of storm processes and impacts. Topics include forecast model capabilities, uncertainties in surge predictions, and understanding coastal processes and impacts from surge, waves, & erosion from all types of coastal storms, not just hurricanes. We aim to bridge the apparent gap between the research of coastal scientists and modelers and the information being distributed publicly and to emergency managers before, during, and after storm events.
Only about half the time will be spent in traditional presentation style meeting, the rest of the time will be dedicated to small breakout discussions to identify and prioritize challenges.
This workshop has several objectives:
1) to identify the challenges involved in predicting storm impacts,
2) to understand the storm processes themselves and to be able to represent those processes in our prediction techniques,
3) to bridge the apparent gap between the research of coastal scientists and modelers and the information being distributed publicly and to emergency managers before, during, and after storm events
4) to assess the extent to which scientific knowledge can be applied to these challenges, and
5) to continue to engage coastal researchers toward a future, community, large-scale, extreme-event field experiment to measure during-storm hydrodynamics, meteorology, hydrology, sediment transport, geology, ecology, and the resulting morphological evolution of the beach and dune system with overtopping and overland flow, proposed as DUNEX (During Nearshore Event eXperiment).
Since Hurricane Katrina’s landfall on the Gulf coast in 2005, Sandy’s landfall on the U.S. northeast coast in 2012, and the recent 2017 hurricane season, and multiple extra-tropical storm systems that have battered different sections of the U.S coastline, forecasting storm processes has become an important topic from a National risk reduction perspective. Forecasts of storm tracks, size, and intensity have improved dramatically over the past three decades as the best available meteorological science has been adopted. Using these improved forecasting capabilities to reduce uncertainties in the associated prediction of physical results (waves, surge, wave runup at the shoreline, and coastal erosion, overwash, and flooding) will help to reduce the risk posed to life and property during these devastating events.
One challenge of particular interest to the coastal research community the balance between probabilistic (accounting for uncertainty by running hundreds of simulations with possible storm parameters) and deterministic (a single but highly-resolved simulation) model guidance. Additionally, uncertainties in surge and coastal change predictions are a combination of uncertainties in forcing conditions when storms are far from landfall (i.e., storm size, intensity and track), missing representation of some processes in physics-based models, inaccurate representation of bathymetric or topographic features, and lack of the combined effects of meteorological, hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and morphodynamic processes in the models. The impact of multiple storms will also likely be addressed. Storm processes and coastal impacts can vary along different segments of the U.S. coast but this meeting may help identify common goals and needs that can be addressed through focused and collaborative research efforts.